What no one says and even thinks.
Of course, good, very good and it is remarkable that the prisoners were exchanged or, if you speak the language of Russian documents — “detained persons”. Well, okay that among the Ukrainian prisoners, two-thirds — are citizens of Ukraine, which, apparently, if you’re lucky, soon to be either “new Russians”, or humus, if you’re lucky a little less. The legal nature of the expulsion of citizens of Ukraine in Russia, even three times Pro-Russian, not quite clear, but the world is full of wonderful things, aren’t you, Horatio? And once the Kremlin and the Bank has agreed to such terms of exchange, then so be it.
Someone from commentators began to develop the idea that this is supposedly the first mass exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and LDNR, and between Ukraine and Russia (exchange Savchenko was in the format of “one to two”), so Donetsk is a war between Russia and Ukraine. Other same event interpretiruya the opposite way: once the Ukrainians were exchanged for Ukrainians, then on Donbass there is a civil war. However, for some reason all the prisoners found themselves in Russian prisons.
By the way, there was a sense that Kirill Vyshinsky not too eager to Moscow and may soon go back to Kiev. But without it, “the triumphant return of our boys” in Vnukovo more resembled stills from the film “Cold summer 53-go”, so Cyril was quite well, does not.
But what no one says and even thinks?
Now in Russian-Ukrainian relations is the Grand revenge of the Kremlin, Smolenskaya square (MFA) and some authorities and influential circles offices. Ukraine beat stupid. More precisely, though not stupid, but very sharp and elegant. And if it goes on, it will be a basketball score. And revenge can turn into triumph.
So, the Russian side effectively begins to use the situation in Ukraine: “shift change” of power, temporal incoherence and unprofessionalism of the new political regime. And more understandable ambitions Zelensky to become Moses and Mary-the very popular at the same time, that is, to withdraw from Russian captivity, all captive Cossacks. The score between the teams of KGB of the USSR and the KVN higher League while not devastating, but is clearly in favor of the first.
The Kremlin is trying to impose Zelensky, not any words, thoughts or sequence of actions, and a certain discourse — model descriptions and interpretations of reality. There are going to meet the President of Ukraine in his desire to become a “peacemaker,” “the President of the World”, “the winner of the War” and the like. The Union of technology of “controlled chaos”, “reflexive control”, “GOP-stop” and “divorce of the sucker on trust” can bring the Kremlin unprecedented political outcome.
Here Zelensky was glad that the first step to peace with Russia and Putin. He is on the wings of success, and at this point critical thinking is bare, if not disabled.
I think it becomes clear what is different in the conceptual-communicative relation to the dialogue of the Kremlin to Poroshenko and Zelensky — with yet serious succession for key positions in their foreign policy. With the first dialogue was a priori impossible, was possible only two monologues do not want to hear the other subjects with artistic mats to both sides.
Now Zelensky engage in multi-level dialogue with the Kremlin. But since this dialogue is controlled by the Kremlin, and not the President of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian political environment is not appropriate craftsmen reflexive information-psychological wars, the result is likely to be in favor of the Kremlin.
Poroshenko was similar to that of Homa Brutus, who circled themselves around the chalk and did not look into the eyes of the Wii. Zelensky in these eyes seem to have already looked or will look.
In General, in the next few weeks offer the most effective time to “old” Romano-Germanic Europe and Russia concluded a secret Pact decision, “all the boring Ukrainian question.” What history has many examples.
1. More to update actually meaningless rhetoric under the Minsk agreements and the Normandy format, the maximum increasing the importance of these factors in the eyes of the “collective Zelensky”. Here the process is important, not the result. More precisely, the process itself leads to profitable for the Kremlin results.
2. To impose Zelensky, his entourage and all the “green” idea of the “constructive” and “win-win” negotiations with the Kremlin.
3. After the withdrawal of troops in the Donbas to begin “vpihat nevpikhuyemy” (LDNR) back to Ukraine, even if in less rigid terms in Kiev than prescribed in the Minsk agreements.
4. To change the stiffness level of the rhetoric in the Crimea not only in the dialogue with Europe, but also in the dialogue with Ukraine Zelensky: instead of “we do not sell our watered with the blood of the Russian people land,” “Crimea is Russia forever” with “for the moment the consideration of this question is, unfortunately, not possible, so let’s leave him out of the equation — at least for the near future”.
5. To consider the question of reducing and limiting the pressure of sanctions — including the cancellation of the sectoral sanctions. What Europe (EU) will be a standing ovation. Moreover, Europe will become an ally of Russia in the question of pressure on Zelensky. And, in General, is becoming.
6. To change the rhetoric around the complex issues of war and peace. NLP techniques to act and “reflexive control” slipping Zelensky false purpose, false values, false targets, and “Libra” with false weights.
The Russian diplomatic school and diplomatic tradition of Russia and the tactics of the public and non — public negotiations are not an empty sound. This centuries-old practice, it is dozens of “hacking”, it is belief in his own historical rightness, operation, “eschatological order” and “great meanings”.
I wonder what can counter this luxurious tools, the impact of the new Ukrainian elite, some representatives of which have unique professional experience, wedding photographers, children’s entertainers and writers of comedies clockwork?
In Russia hope that a new production of the recent comedians become a tragedy.
However, the comedians themselves are still all the chances to deceive the Russian expectations and turn an impending tragedy into a mystery, or a farce. In General, you will not be bored.
Andriy Okara, “New time”