The leaders of the Syrian intelligence has been replaced, and this may not be a coincidence.
“As the situation in Syria is currently frozen, will have to negotiate,” – says in an interview Atlantico, (translation inopressa.ru) Alain Rodier, a retired officer of the French intelligence, the Deputy Director of the French centre for intelligence studies, an expert on Islamic terrorism and organized prestupnost.
“Syrian government forces although subjected to constant shelling, still hold the West of the country except for pockets of resistance in Idlib, which is located in the North-West and enjoys the support of Turkey, – says the expert. – The enclave of the insurgents impossible to subdue through military means, because the Syrian troops even with the support of foreign volunteers under the leadership of Tehran and the Russian army do not have the technical and human resources. The enemy is too strong (from 30 thousand to 60 thousand battle hardened activists are hiding among the 2.5 million people in difficult terrain), and in case of emergency he will help Ankara. Besides, Turkey already receives almost three million refugees and do not have the means to give shelter to the new one. An offensive by Syrian government forces in the area would have catastrophic consequences.”
“(…) The United States gradually withdraw from Syria because their direct interests are in other places (…); Turkey, for its part, seeks to maintain security on its southern border, focusing on the PKK (workers party of Kurdistan), Iran has other concerns about us sanctions and growing tensions in relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – the latter does not want to enter into the swamp. And finally, Russia got what they wanted (their military presence over the next 50 years), etc. Thus, all the conditions together contribute to the onset of serious negotiations, but without Assad,” says Rodier.
“The problem is that the political opportunity considers Moscow turns out to be problematic as potential candidates for the continuity of the Assad clan are already in black lists of the West, and in the background is the prospect that they will appear before the International criminal court for crimes not exposed to Statute of limitations,” – said the source publication.
“A possible successor is major-General Ali mamlouk, a close Advisor of Bashar al-Assad, one of the founding members of the feared Air force intelligence. Sunday 7 July, he was appointed Vice-President of Syria for security Affairs. Previously, he was head of the National security Bureau, coordinating the work of all the intelligence agencies in Syria, ” – said Rodier.
“Despite the fact that the Mamluk as a whole it is forbidden to travel to the West, its former position allowed him to meet many foreign officials both in Syria and in other places. He officially went to Moscow, Cairo and Amman. With more caution, it was probably taken in Ankara, Jeddah and even Rome (for him it is a pretty dangerous point – he could have been arrested there – as happened to one of his close colleagues). In addition, he met with crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman, who was waiting for him with a sympathetic hearing. It is well known that the Prince enjoys the confidence of President Donald trump. The latter is quite ready to do without the opinion of Europe (this will not happen for the first time) to achieve the agreement that he could present as his personal success at the next presidential election in 2020,” – says the expert.
“The Russians know very well General Mamluks, with whom they had a close relationship for many years, even before the collapse of the Soviet Union,” – emphasizes Rodier.
“(…) All the senior officers of the Syrian intelligence has been replaced, and this may not be a coincidence. Some see in this the influence of Moscow, which Syria seeks to overtake Tehran. Now I have to wait before to say that the Russians really took Syria into their own hands. The problem is that, as usual, for the situation of the civil war that has been ongoing since 2011, paying the civilian population. It is time to end this” – sums up the source.