Photo: AFP

There are two ways.

Since April, when the commander of the self-styled “Libyan national army” General Khalifa Haftar carried out an offensive on Tripoli, in Libya, little has changed. But now there is information about the presence of Russian mercenaries to the front lines and what effect they have on the fighting to capture the Libyan capital. The official representative of the US Africa command for the first time confirmed the presence of the “Russian private military companies” in the West of Libya (the presence of Russia in the East, away from the combat zone, suspected for a long time). By taking a highly unusual step, the participants of the us-Libyan dialogue condemned “Russia’s attempts to use this conflict against the will of the Libyan people”, writes Bloomberg (translation inosmi.ru).

The administration of the trump seven months ambiguously and evasively spoke about the third civil war in Libya for the past nine years, but now she had the opportunity to play a significant role in the cessation of hostilities. However, the administration will have to carry out uncharacteristic for her aggressive and disruptive diplomacy in the region. Neither trump nor the Obama administration did not pay Libya the attention it deserves.

This time the stakes are rising for Russia threatens to upset the balance of forces and to expand its presence on the southern flank of NATO. The administration may tacitly agree to strengthen Russian influence, and can oppose to him a Union of like-minded States to try again to achieve a political settlement in Libya.

During the recent civil war in Libya, more than a thousand people died and tens of thousands became refugees. The war paralyzed the political process under the leadership of the UN and aimed at achieving a lasting political settlement in the country. Troops recognized by the world community of the national consensus government was able to reflect the April offensive of the Haftarot, however, since Tripoli are subjected to indiscriminate bombing and precision bombing, which killed civilians, and caused great damage to residential areas.

Haftarot helps not only Russia but also the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and (to a lesser extent) France. The national consensus government addressed Turkey with a request to provide it with fighters, unmanned aerial vehicles and vehicles with mounted weapons and other equipment. Soon to be released UN report, which will detail the details of such shipments in violation of the sanctions introduced in 2011. According to estimates of the UN mission in Libya, the Libyan national army carried out more than 800 strikes using drones, while the government of national consensus about 240.

The idea is to allow Russia to intervene in the Libyan case, contrary to the national security Strategy, national defense Strategy and the strategy of the national security Council on Africa, because they all put in the forefront the great power rivalry and opposition to the Russian (and Chinese) influence.

Libya has become for these strategies test performance. If Russia will change the war in favor of the Haftarot, the West will lose influence in Libya. Then this country will be sustained instability, and die, all hopes for a peaceful political transition. US fails to deter coming from Libyan terrorism after they defeated the forces of the jihadists in Sirte, causing a series of precise strikes on associated with “al-Qaeda” and ISIS groups. If the African command will not be able to strike at targets in Libya and the fight against terrorism will be engaged in Russia, ISIL probably will again raise their heads. As example, Syria.

In his statement of 14 November, the state Department condemned “the attack of the Libyan national army” and Russian intervention. However, there remain major doubts about the seriousness of the administration and its readiness to act. After he heard the statement of the state Department, the Haftarot troops attacked civilian targets in Tripoli and at the military facility in Misrata, which killed many people.

To avoid any doubt about the United States ‘ commitment to achieving a settlement in Libya, the White house must repeat made on 14 November, the statement and also to explain what will be his response to the Russian intervention.

First, the administration should actively denounce Russia’s actions in Libya, without causing any harm to intelligence sources. The Libyan and Western officials say the presence in Libya of 200 to 1 400 Russian mercenaries from private military companies. Most of them are part of the group of Wagner, which is connected with one of Putin’s entourage. USA needs to give an official estimate of the number of mercenaries and tell all that is possible about their actions and influence. Russia is beneficial to deny the presence in Libya of a group of Wagner; the United States should deprive it of such benefits.

Second, the US should threaten sanctions on anyone involved in the supply of weapons to Libya, including kompiam-suppliers, companies, carriers and insurers. Today the embargo on arms shipments violated with impunity. The administration has the authority to impose sanctions those who “threaten the peace, security and stability of Libya,” and the house of representatives and the Senate proposed a draft law in support of sanctions, particularly against Russia. But while the Obama administration and trump used them only against the Libyans.