This follows from the situation in the Syrian Idlib.

Russian-Turkish talks on de-escalation of the situation in Syria on 10 February has not led to any results. Ankara demanded an end to attacks on Turkish positions in the North-West of Syria, Moscow, in turn, expressed concern about the growing tensions in Syria, but no specific steps the parties agree, according to dw.com.

The fighting in Idlib

Negotiations between Russia and Turkey was preceded by offensive operations of the Syrian army in Idlib province, which since the beginning of February were killed 13 Turkish soldiers. Ankara did not hesitate to answer: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkish F-16 fighter jets launched strikes on 46 targets in Syria, according to various estimates, killed from 30 to 35 Syrian soldiers. “Turkey responded with a powerful shot to the shelling in Idlib and will continue to do so in the future,” promised Erdogan.

The next step was the transfer by Turkey of hundreds of military vehicles and troops in their outposts in Idlib. Erdogan said that Ankara will continue to attack Syrian troops, even outside the zone of de-escalation, if the army of Bashar al-Assad continue to attack. However, observers believe that Turkey is unlikely to be solved by some serious steps, the impending direct collision with the Russian aviation and the military units that support Assad’s troops.

Neither Russia nor Turkey is not ready to sacrifice their positions in Idlib, said Tobias Schneider (Tobias Schneider), senior researcher of the Institute of global public policy in Berlin. “We may be witnessing a small collision like the one that happened in 2015, when the Turks shot down a Russian plane. And then we will see who will back down first. Now this is a big issue,” stated the analyst.

The meeting in the format of “Sochi 2.0” would help Turkey and Russia to achieve a balance

After 2015, Russia entered the war in Syria supporting the Assad regime air strikes on targets of the rebels and turn the tide of events in favor of the Syrian government, Turkey in 2016 supported some rebel groups in Northern Syria.

After a series of peace talks on settlement of the situation in Syria, which was held in Astana and Sochi with the mediation of the governments of Russia, Turkey and Iran, the parties managed to reach a fragile truce. But now it seems, is again under threat, as the Kremlin supports the offensive of the Syrian army in areas controlled by Turkey.

According to Tobias Schneider, Turkey is in a weaker position. Difficult relations with Ankara and other NATO members have reduced the likelihood that the U.S. or European countries will help to restore the balance. The analyst Mohamad Kawase suggested that the most likely scenario against the backdrop of military intervention, Turkey will be new negotiations. “Meeting format “Sochi 2.0″ could help the parties to achieve a balance,” says Schneider.

The capture of Idlib Assad’s troops – a matter of time?

Tobias Schneider admits that, by stepping up its military presence in the region, Ankara is trying to force the retreat of the Syrian army in order to strengthen their position in negotiations with Moscow. But given the fact that the Turkish air force “disorganized”, the main question, according to the expert, “is if Turkey will be able to hold its position with no real threats against Russia. And Ankara is ready to go that far?”

German scientist calls the situation “a slow controlled collapse of Idlib”, as Assad continues to periodically conduct small military operations to progressively capture areas held by the rebels.

On Tuesday, February 12, the UN Office for the coordination of humanitarian Affairs warned that the city of Idlib, which is inhabited by about 280 thousand people, in case of continuation of hostilities could “become a graveyard”.

Turkey is awash with Syrian refugees

From December 2019, the offensive launched by the Assad troops in Idlib province, its population is three million people, the status of displaced persons has received more than 700 tisas civilians – more than ever during the war in Syria.

Turkey has found refuge 3.5 million had fled the war of Syrians. Ankara opposes the increase in their number, indicating that the country has reached the limits of the possible in the reception of refugees. Erdogan has already warned that if the stream is not be able to cut, Turkey will open the border for refugees in Europe, contrary to the agreement signed between the EU and Ankara in 2016. In this case, Tobias Snyder does not exclude that the EU will reconsider the agreement with Turkey and impose sanctions against it.