MOSCOW, July 11. /offset. Julia Hasegawa TASS/. Iran’s oil exports after November 2018 may be reduced by 40-50%, estimated by experts polled by TASS.
To replace these volumes will be able Saudi Arabia, but the reduction in spare capacity will push prices up, they warn. Until the end of the year prices may reach $80 per barrel.
How terrible sanctions
The United States still restrict exports of Iranian oil, announced on the eve of Secretary of state Michael Pompeo. November 4,, according to him, all purchases of Iranian oil will be considered illegal. Currently, American authorities are negotiating with the countries – buyers of Iranian oil, which is recommended to reduce imports to zero, he said.
In reality Iran’s oil exports may decrease by 1-1. 2 million barrels per day, according to respondents TASS analysts, in their calculations they rely on the experience of past sanctions in 2012-2015. In June, according to oil Ministry of Iran, the country exported 2 .6 million barrels per day.
“Diplomatic show”: the threat of a US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran
“The United States will fully implement sanctions against Iran only if the measures will join China and India”, – says the Director of energy centre Moscow school of management SKOLKOVO Tatiana Mitrova. However, if India and responded to the demands of the White house, saying that they would try to stop using Iranian oil, China keeps silent, she pays attention. “Therefore, the United States will likely have to settle for only a partial restriction of Iranian oil exports,” she sums up.
China and other countries in the region will probably seek the opportunity to continue to buy Iranian oil, says the Director of the division of corporations of the Agency Fitch Dmitry marinchenko. Also, in his opinion, purchasing can continue European company with business in USA and not dependent on Western capital markets.
In an extreme case, Iran will be able to redirect oil from European markets to Asia, primarily to China, adds the Deputy Director of corporate ratings group ACRA Basil Tanurkov. “In this case looks more realistic decline in exports by 0.5 million barrels per day,” he says. This decline, in his opinion, will not be a shock to the market and will not require urgent action on the part of other OPEC countries.
What will happen to the price
To replace Iranian supply without will Saudi Arabia consider all to experts interviewed by TASS. Earlier, the Saudi energy Minister Khaled al-Faleh first responded to the promise of the American President Donald trump to back sanctions against Iran. Al-Faleh, then, in his Twitter said that Saudi Arabia and its allies at the OPEC+, including Russia, will not allow a shortage in the supply of oil.
Later, it was Saudi Arabia and Russia have initiated recovery of production in the framework of the Vienna agreement on restrictions. The decision to increase production by 1 million barrels per day was taken at a meeting of the Alliance at the end of June. Although dalos it is not easy because of resistance of Iran.
The only problem is that to compensate for fallen Iranian volumes of Saudi Arabia and to a lesser extent other countries will have to use almost all available power, says marinchenko. “This will push prices up in any faults with the production,” – he draws attention.
In addition, attempts of the us administration to impose its opinion of the members of OPEC will aggravate the atmosphere of mistrust between the two countries. Next time to reach consensus will be difficult, said marinchenko. Tanurkov also agree that the pressure on OPEC by the US will only lead to higher prices.
In General, oil prices will remain between $70-80 per barrel if supplies of Iranian oil will be able to replace and the growth of shale oil production will continue, concludes marinchenko. She also believes that in the case of reducing Iranian exports to 1 million barrels per day average oil price could rise from $63 to $78 per barrel. “In the case of a hard failure of India from Iranian oil imports, we can see more rapid price growth,” she concludes.