The oil market is not necessarily in 2018 will be a Happy New Year (“Happy New Year”) for those who would like to see it more scarce, says the IEA in its monthly review.

In 2017 oil supply rose by 200 thousand b/d in November to 97.8 million b/d, the highest level in a year thanks to the growth in US production.

In 2018, “the total growth of supply may exceed demand growth”. “In fact, in the first half of the year may be in excess of 200 thousand b/d before switching to a deficit of 200 thousand b/d in the second half,” writes the Agency, noting that at the end of the year, the market can be balanced.

The reason for the IEA calls oil production growth in the US, where again increased drilling activity, which may indicate a higher production in the coming months. Therefore, the IEA raised its forecast of oil production growth in the U.S . at 390 thousand b/d in 2017 and 870 thousand b/d in 2018. Higher production in the U.S. is about 75% of the total increase of oil supplies from non-OPEC in 2017 and 2018. Shipments are expected to grow by 630 thousand b/d in 2017 and a further 1.6 million b/d in 2018 to 59.6 million b/d. Other sources of growth will be Brazil, Canada, the UK and Kazakhstan.

“A lot can change in the next few months, but it looks like the fall of reserves in 2018 with the same rate of 500 thousand b/d, which we saw in 2017, may not happen,” – noted experts.