The Kremlin is losing control of the situation in Syria.
The term “strange” war is called the period of the Second world war from 3 September 1939 when Britain and France officially declared war on the Reich, and before the invasion of his troops in France 10 may 1940 He came to the US in 1939 and reflected the bewilderment mediocre journalists: as it is, war is declared, and where is fighting, comparable with the First world war? Not only the generals think in past wars, civilians suffer from this disease, even more than military.
The American press, this term was borrowed by some journalists in Europe, including France, which did not impress the offensive of the French army on September 7 in the Saarland, the German offensive there in October and battles at sea. Too little corpses – the Germans in the Saar without serious resistance retreated behind the fortifications of the Siegfried line and the French in October without a fight gone from their positions behind the Maginot line. Fighting on the seas had a form of local skirmishes, but not a big pvp fleets. The journalists were disappointed as the audience who came to the bullfight, but instead of the bullfighter and bull on it, just the clowns.
Soviet propaganda was also disappointed that the “imperialists” did not seize each other grip of bulldogs, and the “second imperialist” is sluggish, not the way she expected. The Communists of the USSR and Europe supported the Hitler, which raised the German people to fight against “Anglo-French imperialists” and the humiliating Treaty of Versailles. The Communist party of France and its head Maurice Thorez voted in Parliament against war credits and called mobilized to desert. But this fact did not prevent the Communist party in 1964 to rename the city Chistyakov in Sloboda Ukraine in Torez.
Not only WWII, but also the “second imperialist” begins strangely, not as they relied on past experience. Few people saw in those events the beginning of a new world war. This is partly natural – the big better to see from afar. In the period from 1337 to 1453, the year no-one in England and in France had no idea that they are 116 years, the hundred years war. The term historians invented centuries later. But some believe that the “hundred years war” ended in 1628, when cardinal Richelieu took La Rochelle and England lost her last possession in France.
With the term “phony war” turned out to be the opposite. It is extremely reckless was coined by journalists and historians have gone on about them. Modern historians in their own way no less conservative audience than the generals. As a result, the term “phony war” stuck in the historiography, despite the fact that during this period, the Reich and the Soviet Union divided Poland amongst themselves, with political maps were taken from Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Estonia and part of Romania and Finland were captured by the red army. In Norway and in Finland were quite large and not “strange” fighting. Britain and France not only fought against the Reich, but also developed a plan of attack from the air base in Kirkuk in the oil fields of Baku to the Reich oil supplies from the Soviet Union, not only Europe, but Asia has become a battleground in the war.
In spite of this, historiography ends the period of “phoney war” the invasion of France the troops of the Reich. Only from may 10, 1940, ostensibly over “strange” and began “normal” war. A very strange sight. He has only two justifications: the conservatism of historians and the inability of many people, including journalists, to see the forest for the trees.
In the Russian offensive in the South of Idlib, the Syrian, initiated may 9, 2019, few people saw the beginning of world war III. It was the first trial to see the reaction of Turkey. The ultimate goal was to offset the front line on average 12-15 km and the capture of the city of Khan shaykhun, so dear to the heart of the Russians, because there they 2017 used chemical weapons.
Until may 9, 2019 Russian troops and Assad didn’t invade the Turkish zone of de-escalation in Idlib, following an agreement signed in Astana and Sochi. All the “strange” war between Russia and Turkey until may 9, was reduced to a rare aircraft, artillery and missile shelling of Idlib. After may 9, this “strange” war was a series of local offensives in Idlib. Until January 2020, the Russian troops were moving in Idlib small steps. Turkey was outraged but nothing was taken, except two or three local counter-attacks of the forces of the Syrian opposition.
But on 27-28 January 2020, the Russian troops occupied the city Maarrat-EN-nuuman, the second largest after Idlib, and everything changed. Erdogan on January 29 held a press conference and declared: “Our patience is over. If the attacks will not stop, Ankara will take all necessary steps. Turkey does not want to capture Syrian territory. It is important for us the situation of ordinary Syrians who need to be saved. Turkey hopes that Russia will soon make appropriate warnings to the Assad regime. Russia should reconsider cooperation with Damascus or Ankara”.
Erdogan, fending off a five-year mantra of Moscow that in Syria it is fighting a war with terrorists, asked the question: “Who do you call terrorists? Those who defend their homes? If you ask Moscow, it turns out that all 4 million inhabitants of Idlib, the terrorists. In fact, these people fled violence of the Assad regime”.
Turkey is not limited to a statement that she ran out of patience. Its army from January 29 began to build earthworks on the M5 highway Hama – Aleppo, the seizure of which was the goal of the Russian troops. Since then, the “strange” war of Russia with Turkey is increasingly beginning to acquire the features of conventional war.
Turkish artillery from February 7 for the first time began to fire at the asadovtsami in Idlib. Prior to that, nothing in Idlib was not for three reasons. The Turkish military presence in Idlib was small, had no heavy weapons along the line of the zone of de-escalation, but had a clear indication in hostilities not to enter. Clashes with asadovtsami was before only in the areas for Euratom, under the control of the Kurds, when left the USA and entered the Turkish and the Russian army.
Soldiers on the Turkish observation posts in Idlib did not engage in combat with asadovtsami when they occupied the area around them. Moscow also banned from Assad to attack them and till 18 Feb allowed the Turks to bring them food and equipment, but not weapons and ammunition.
“Strange” war on 7 February, has entered a new phase. Russian aircraft and artillery continued continued “to iron” the towns of Idlib and did not hide it. Turkey also started to hit the asadovtsami and to report regularly, how many of them managed to neutralize. The term includes, in addition to those killed, also wounded and prisoners. While the army of the Russian Federation and Turkey tried not to hurt each other. Erdogan, after the death of 6 soldiers of Turkey 9 February, angrily accused Moscow that it had been alerted to their location, but do not see what asadovtsev. In retaliation, Turkish artillery went through the military base of the Russian Federation between the cities of tall afar and Zahra. About whether or not the victims among them are not reported, and Moscow were sympathetic to this fact. “Strange” war.
This understanding was due to the fact that in Ankara February 10, flew from Moscow the delegation for negotiations. The talks went on at the presidential Palace, but their contents have not been leaked to the press. The light it sheds only the speech of Erdogan, who on February 11 demanded that asadovtsy until the end of February went back for the Turkish observation posts.
Clearly, the talks in Ankara came to nothing. Asadovtsy went on the offensive along the M5 highway as if nothing had happened, took her completely under control and began to move towards the Turkish-Syrian border in Idlib. Moreover, on February 9 at the Ukrainian-Russian border stuck 250 cargo trucks with Turkish tomatoes for a total amount of up to $10 million Moscow refused to let them in Russia, arguing that Turkey has exhausted in January the quota for the supply of 150 thousand tons. As of 18 February, these tomatoes are still rotting at the border, and their fate excited a private Turkish TV channel NTV.
Stuck on the border tomatoes are not the only new twist in this “country” war.
February 16 published an interview with the Russian Ambassador to Turkey, Alexei Erchov Russian military TV channel “Zvezda”, where he complained that the address of the Embassy began to come too many emails with threats. For example, cited two: “We will construct skyscrapers from the skulls of your soldiers” and “Pay the price for every drop you spilled blood.” From the whole interview the only thing that disseminated by the Russian media.
Interviews started for the replication of only this story, and it is addressed not only to the audience “Stars”. Tourists from Russia unofficially made it clear to Turkey it is better not to go.
It is symptomatic that the interview appeared on 16 Feb and 17 Feb flew to Moscow already the Turkish delegation to talk about Idlib since 10 February in Ankara side about anything not agreed. The talks went on all day and two hours on February 18. At the end of the parties have made no joint statements – this means only one thing – not agreed. After talks in Ankara statements was not there. “Strange” Russia’s war with Turkey will soon cease to be “strange”.
Between this “strange” war and a “strange” outbreak of the Second world has two strange Parallels: military-technical and diplomatic.
First, while technically Turkey was not ready for large-scale fighting in Idlib, just as Britain and France were not ready for large-scale war with the Reich. Journalists, unlike generals “forgot” that the war does not begin with a wave of a wand commander. The desired mobilization, the concentration of forces, plan, and even the most stupid generals, unlike the stupid journalists understand that the losses will be real, not virtual. Judging by the fact that in Idlib from Turkey, from 7 to 18 February entered not less than 500 units of military equipment, the Turks just now and quickly build their military logistics.
Second, diplomatic – in the beginning of the war it is not always clear who will be whose ally. Classic Italy in the First world war. Initially was an ally of Germany and Austria-Hungary, but entered the war on the Entente side. The “strange” beginning of the world was due to the fact that the Soviet Union entered the war on the side of the Reich, than complicated life to the British and the French more than the U.S. their usual isolationism and pacifism.
Erdogan, solving the second problem, visited Kyiv on 3 and 4 February and 14 February – Pakistan. In the hall in Islamabad on seeing him, was exhibited not only the flag of Turkey, but also a portrait of Ataturk. Erdogan has long been working on their image of the leader of the Islamic world and Pakistan exposed portrait that subtly drew a parallel to him from Ataturk. To put up with US at this time flew the delegation from the Turkish Parliament. In those days in Ankara were held non-public talks with Qatar on gas supplies, and February 18, a military Alliance. This is only a part of the diplomatic moves of Turkey in the hope that the “strange” war with Russia will soon cease to be “strange”.
The main reason Putin’s regime before his death decided to put Russia in full blast and experience of its inhabitants to the test. The onslaught by the Russian military in the Luhansk region in the morning of 18 February, following its invasion of Syria and Idlib, is only two episodes of “strange” or hybrid phases of world war III. Russia is tired of itself and like an overheated the motor starts going full blast.
Sergei Klimovsky, “Browser”