The outbreak of the coronavirus would be periodically repeated

The new coronavirus is likely to remain with people for a long time. The next outbreak is forecast for 2022.

Scientists from Harvard University based on computer models of predicted distribution COVID-19 for the next five years. According to the authors, a single lock will not stop the new coronavirus. The study is published in the journal Science.

The simulation results showed that with high probability COVID-19, as well as other human coronaviruses that cause colds, will be a seasonal disease with higher transmission speeds in the colder months.

At the same time, the authors note, at the moment unknown immunity level acquired in the population, and how long this immunity will last. But it is highly likely that it will take repeated periods of social distancing to prevent the overflow of hospitals. Tentatively it will happen in 2022.

The authors believe that in order to understand when they have exceeded the threshold for the re-introduction of distancing requires extensive viral testing. As the emergence of new drugs and vaccines, the duration and the intensity of the lock can be adjusted. But yet another means of combating the spread of SARS-CoV-2, except social isolation.

At the same time, too strict isolation, according to scientists, can also play a negative role, as they will not give rise to immunity in the population.

“Allowing periods of transmission during the period of higher prevalence, it is possible to accelerate the acquisition of immunity,” says another study author mark Lipsitz (Marc Lipsitch).

Under the toughest scenario of isolation, “social distancing was so effective that practically did not create herd immunity”, the article says. Therefore, the most effective scientists believe the introduction of intermittent isolation.

The authors acknowledged that their construction is based only on the knowledge about the new coronavirus that is available, but it is not known how strong the immunity arises from the ill person and how long it lasts. For the most part their model is based on data for closely related coronaviruses, the immunity which persisted for about a year. Researchers also suspect that there may be a certain protective immunity against COVID-19 people who have had colds caused by coronaviruses.

The main conclusion of the study is that the new coronavirus almost certainly remain in the population for a long time. While there is no indication that he produces strong, stable immunity, as in the case of an outbreak of SARS in 2003.

Previously, scientists told how to distinguish COVID-19 from the flu, and called early signs of a severe form of coronavirus.

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