Panic in the Kremlin is growing.

The Russian defense Minister Sergei Shoigu says that the military-political situation on the borders of the Commonwealth of Independent States remains extremely tense. If we were talking only about the military situation, it could be understood, but the Russian Minister of defence why-that mentions a political. Panic in the Kremlin is growing.

28 years ago, when the collapse of the USSR became apparent, the Soviet generals were a serious problem – Soviet border was open, if not, already “unlocked”, as before. Yeltsin was in a hurry to deal with Gorbachev and to the government, leaving in the dark generals, who did not want the collapse of the “mighty powers” – they understand that open borders will begin to infiltrate the “plague” of capitalism and democracy.

On the one hand, Boris Yeltsin already had the reputation of a “Democrat” and even “liberal,” talked a lot about corruption and the privileges of officials. And about the heavy heritage of the USSR, but decided to leave the territory can not be unattended. In the West, he spoke of democracy, in fact, keeping the USSR under the guise of the CIS. It was a compromise of Soviet generals and the former Soviet nomenklatura – we give you as much sovereignty “as they can swallow”, and the answer will be sitting at the round table and pretend that you are independent.

Boris Yeltsin for the species continued to curse the Communists and the Soviet system, but were collecting for the round table members of the Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee and the leaders of the Republican Communist parties, which were still the heads of the new independent States, but now were presidents. All the Communist party was renamed the people’s, and even in the people’s democratic former secretaries have become governors. The Soviet Union was retained, with few exceptions obstinate Balts, and two or three new countries with which to pacify the separatists came up and tore the piece of land that lot did not act.

It turned out that the Soviet Union collapsed politically, but not physically: the signing of the Belavezha accords opened the way to a new configuration of the Empire. As before, without Moscow, it was impossible to decide matters of international political or military cooperation. Over time, the CIS was allowed to lead an independent political life, but without any contacts with NATO and the United States, in the Kremlin, for this strictly followed.

The most serious reason for concern was the border of building communication along the Russian border was expensive, so the CIS is quickly driven into a new organization – the Organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO). The beginning of the CSTO was founded on may 15, 1992 by signing the Treaty on collective security in Tashkent. However, further double-Uzbekistan left the CSTO, believing that no benefit from it, and the discipline of their own army to some Russian General is fraught with consequences. Similarly, we decided to other countries, as a result, today the CSTO are only Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

It would seem that the Kremlin had to be calm for the outer border, while Kiev has not happened a new Maidan. Moscow tried to create a “buffer” area of “little”, but failed. Crimea only became a hostage situation and not the decision of the Kremlin strategists. They believed that the “Russian world” in Eastern Ukraine will become a defender of Russia, if not for the miscalculations of the Russian military and the patriotism of the Ukrainian population. In the Caucasus a limiting buffer was Chechnya, and only Kazakhstan has closed a Russian expanses from the “corrupting influence of Islamists from the South.”

Soviet, became overnight the Russian generals were satisfied – all the military equipment and weapons under their control, education officers receive post-Soviet armies in Russia, the Russian military-industrial complex receives stable orders from five countries. The main condition for partners to dismiss the proposals of NATO, as it once happened in Kyrgyzstan there since 2001 was the antiterrorist coalition airbase NATO in 2009-2014 was located transit Center U.S. air force. Then comrades from Moscow had enough, and they demanded that the leadership of Kyrgyzstan to abandon base and good revenues to the national budget from the lease. Now in Kyrgyzstan the Russian base in Kant, located there almost for free.

So excited engineer Sergei Shoigu? “Given the negative trends in global and regional security the military-political situation on the borders of the Commonwealth remains extremely tense. In these circumstances, become real challenges to the sovereignty of the CIS States”, – he said, speaking at a meeting of the Council of defense Ministers of the CIS countries. Main objective reason is the growing integration with NATO of Georgia and Ukraine. In the Georgian Vaziani has established a center of NATO for retraining, strengthened in Ukraine naval port in Ochakovo.

On the one hand, Shoigu may be quiet for a Central Asian direction of Kazakhstan covers the “danger” from the South, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have Russian military bases, and Turkmenistan recognized by the UN as a neutral state, Uzbekistan returned to the CSTO, but has become more politically active in relations with Russia. FSB of Russia for many years after the withdrawal of its border troops from the Tajik-Afghan border intends to persuade the Tajik authorities once again to return them. To do this, invented a variety of “anxiety” and even a meeting with the leadership of the Taliban, though the background of these negotiations and so clear – the presence of NATO in Afghanistan.

The Kremlin will be able to persuade to friendship those who in the 1980-ies fought against Soviet army – the big question, of course, if Vladimir Putin did not promise “the Taliban” to sell weapons and equipment, and the Taliban will forget that in 1999, announced and encouraged others to join the Jihad against Russia. Then Russia will still fall under the same sanctions as the state collaborating with the terrorists in Russia still nobody cancelled a list of the FSB, where the Taliban movement declared a terrorist.

And yet, the Taliban are not the main threat to Russia, despite allegations that they signed a secret nonaggression Pact. Therefore, Shoigu inclines colleagues in the CSTO to unite the Russian Minister said that “to ensure security is possible only by joint efforts”. But the main threat remains the same – NATO and the United States. Evaluation Shoigu, “the United States continues the dismantlement of strategic agreements to prevent nuclear and missile threat, strengthen the military and economic pressure around the world,” and NATO “provides global information pressure, unprecedented ramping up of military activity threatened the use of force.”

The meeting was not without its traditional Soviet perevarivaya the blame on others. “In different parts of the world there are new sources of tension and instability. The shock troops of international terrorism with the support of the sponsors of the shadow will be moved from region to region, and pose a constant threat to the security of States”, – said Shoigu did not specify whom and what he had in mind. Calculation of the propaganda is good for the Russians, but others are difficult to understand, did the Minister of defence of Russia about three times extracted from Syria, the Russian troops or in Venezuela, military advisers and fighters of private Russian military units.

After the elections in Ukraine, the concern of the Russian leadership became even stronger, especially after the President of Zelensky the headquarters of NATO. This means that Ukraine will not change its desire to integrate into NATO, and 55 percent of the population, according to sociological polling group “Rating”, I want this integration. It turns out that nearly two thousand kilometers of the Russian-Ukrainian border in the near future will become border with NATO as more than 800 kilometers of land and sea of the Russian-Georgian border.

Slowly but surely Russia is losing the confidence and desire to be partners not only with Western countries, but also with their immediate neighbours: the buffer zone, as I wanted 28 years ago, Soviet generals, did not work. Of the fourteen post-Soviet countries, remained close only five, but with them, the Kremlin has a difficult relationship. As correctly noted by Sergey Shoigu, a difficult situation is not even military, but rather political: to turn away from Russia, Moscow does not trust the Kremlin became a Scarecrow.

Oleg Panfilov “Crimea. Realities”