Where throw, everywhere a wedge.

Poverty, hunger, death, look now straight in the face of a considerable part of the Russian population. And this is no exaggeration.

Readers must have realized that I am chronicling the degradation of Putin’s Russia, in particular the chronicle of the degradation of “human capital”. Yes, and chronicle the growth of poverty. This allows me to give some predictions.

In 2019 the Russian situation in the field of demography has deteriorated dramatically, even according to the statistics of Rosstat. According to Rosstat, the mortality rate in 2019 is not increased (even, see, a little reduced), but greatly decreased fertility. Women once again “voted with their stomach.” It was a natural reaction to a serious substantial decline in living standards.

In January — March, 2019 “natural” (unnatural) reduction in the population has reached 106 thousand people — a quarter more than in January — March 2018. But in 2020 the demographic situation has become even worse!

In January — February 2020, according to the same Rosstat, the unnatural reduction reached 80 thousand people (227 thousand births, 307 thousand deaths — the birth rate has fallen and mortality has increased). Slightly extrapolate and get that in January — March this year, “unnatural” has reached or slightly exceeded 120 thousand people, a lot more compared to the 1st quarter of 2019.

But in January and February 2020, the situation in Russia was “seemingly tolerant”, the impact of coronavirus is still not felt. However, during this period currency gain of Gazprom fell by half against the previous year, due to the low world prices for natural gas and 12% reduction in actual exports. But the price of oil was quite high. In General, however, foreign trade and domestic economic position of Russia is deteriorated. Hence, bad demographics.

And in March 2020, especially towards the end of the month, was a “bummer” (pardon the jargon). The volume of export of Russia has fallen by at least 30% (maybe 40%) against Mar 2019. Oil prices you know what. And “the outside world” under the influence “virus” has sharply reduced economic activity and especially the import of any raw materials. The last week of February was clearly the first week of a new global great Depression, probably more terrible than the recession of 2008-2010. And by the end of March the major indexes of new York stock exchange fell by a quarter against the high level reached in February. The result of the stock market crash of Russian exports plummeted, and incomes of Russians too.

In short, it is not surprising now is already bad Russian demography by March 2020. It is obvious that in the 2nd quarter of all Russian social indicators would be much worse.

In early April, Russian “bummer” became “svargaloka”. This is not a “black Swan”, from the verse of Horace and of the Finnish epic, the Kalevala, and not even a flock of “black swans”. It’s the Four horsemen of Revelation (Apocalypse, the last book of the gospel), the chief General destruction.

Decreased as the real GDP of the Russian Federation (not by Rosstat) in the 1st quarter? Not less than 5% (maybe 7%) vs 1st quarter of 2019. In the 2nd quarter, even according to optimistic forecasts, the real GDP will amount to at least 15% compared to April — June of 2019.

This reduction is almost inevitable — due to the catastrophic fall in exports due to the 40-day (so far) “quarantine” in the main Russian cities and a sharp increase in unemployment, due to a more than two-fold “compression” areas of the service, etc. Guess what sizes will reach a demographic “unnatural”.

And there is no reason to expect that in the second half of the year the situation in Russia will improve! Rather the opposite. Though, because a new Great Depression is not going anywhere and the world price of hydrocarbons will not be restored even partially. And virus add much.

For many millions of Russians April was the “month of the exhaustion of resources.” According to polls in early April, only 1% of Russians feels confident in the new disaster. Another 49% expect to make it to your next paycheck. The rest is very poor or just desperate. Almost two-thirds of Russians have no savings, but have a big mortgage debts and loans. And you have to pay a cent!

In the beginning of the year (again Rosstat), the number of unemployed in Russia amounted to about a million people. On April 7, according to experts, this figure had reached seven million people. These same experts say that the number of unemployed will reach the disastrous level of 20-25 million people by may 10, if a 40-day “quarantine” will not be cancelled. Is it possible to cancel it?

I’m not going to give a complex analysis of the spread of the “virus” in Russia (although data is missing). According to careful estimation, the real number of cases (including cases of “community acquired pneumonia”) in Russia in the end of March was close to 200 thousand people. In terms of “optimized” medicine April will add another several hundred thousand are infected (and maybe a million-plus).

Today the number of newly infected in America has reached 400 thousand people, four times more, compared to 27 March. Obviously, the level of one million would be reached before the end of April (and not by the end of may as I recently wrote). And this despite the powerful American medicine and about 150 thousand tests a day! A qualitative test, not a Russian. In Russia it will be much worse.

In the Kremlin and “Valdai” know all this and, most likely, “quarantine” is not canceled. Of course, the Putin regime cares not about the subjects (“and though all will die, brought slaves from Central Asia!”), but only about their own safety.

In short, where throw, everywhere a wedge. Thieves KGB authorities completely lost control over the situation. She does not, the situation is rapidly deteriorating in the economy and demography. Russia is facing the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars in GDP and hundreds of thousands of lives before the end of 2020. Rotten power could not stand a serious test.

It’s not just about replacing Putin to an “acceptable figure” like Sobyanin and Sergei Shoigu. I guess another month — and Putin will “disappear”. But the coronavirus, the Great Depression, widespread poverty and untimely deaths of hundreds of thousands of people came not only for Putin but for all of Putin’s regime. Beauty regime change in Moscow, these “guests” (the Four Horsemen) are not satisfied.

Now specifically. Of the Russian cities do not (yet rare) reports of the defeat of grocery stores. People deprived of income, nothing to eat! Probably by the end of April, the number of “food riots” in the cities will inevitably increase. It is a powerful factor of instability.

At the same time some regions, primarily Eastern, will surely seek help with medical and food, to the “neighbors”. Separatism has already received considerable development in recent years, may be these regions only solution.

Alexander German, kasparov.ru