Konstantin Eggert

If Putin will continue to persist in their games with the distribution of passports, the new batch of sanctions is quite likely.

The decision to start distribution of Russian passports to residents of the so-called “people’s republics” in the de facto occupied Ukrainian territory should be seen as Moscow’s attempt to kill two birds with one stone.

As Zelensky insulted Putin

First, it is a direct response to the speech of Vladimir Zelensky, in which he essentially called on all citizens of the authoritarian post-Soviet States, including Russia, the people’s revolution on the model of Ukraine. No politician in the territory of the former USSR never appealed to Putin in such a tone, even his greatest enemy , Mikhail Saakashvili.

Vladimir Alexandrovich spoke with Vladimir Putin on the language in which the master of the Kremlin used to go solo – the language of values. It in a few sentences formulated the concept of freedom and dignity as desirable and important for all – as opposed to Putin’s lead of “stability” and cheap gas in exchange for loyalty. The Russian leader is such an insult will not forgive and will challenge.

No statement in Berlin, London and Washington condemning the decision to provide the residents of Eastern Ukraine, the Russian citizenship in a simplified procedure will not stop Putin, threatening neighboring country, “the Abkhazian version”. Moreover, additional Putin’s decree on simplified issuance of Russian passports to citizens of Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan with ties to Russia – an outright trolling Western leaders typical of Putin’s style: “I told you that we care about human rights! You keep accident Syrians in refugee camps in Turkey, we widely open the door.”

Ukrainians are replaced by Tajiks and Kyrgyz?

Second, Putin issued a decision trying to break Ukraine economically and simultaneously improve the demographic and economic situation in Russia. This kind of advice he gave long ago. The former leader of the Donbass separatists and possible Russian special services officer Alexander Boroday video blog in mid-February 2014, when the fate of Viktor Yanukovych were unclear, offers to dismember Ukraine away from her the South and East.

And as almost the main reason the former”Prime Minister” of the so-called “DNR” called demographic problem. Ukraine, in terms of a Beard, it’s kind of a reservoir to replenish the shrinking of Russia’s population of people of Slavic origin with a similar mentality. That said Boroday, fully correspond to what we know about the attitudes of the Kremlin leadership and Putin himself on the story, world and Russian.

Since that time, when Alexander Boroday, who played a crucial role in the capture of Donetsk and obviously possessed and with good connections in the Russian top, writing your blog, has entered active life a generation of children born in the nineties – the fewest of the last half century. And since the ageing of the population could not be stopped, it is on these young people bear the increasingly heavy burden of maintaining in working condition of the pension system.

Migration from Central Asia, the inflow of workers, slowed down for three reasons – economic stagnation, devaluation of the ruble and changes in Uzbekistan Mirziyoev the President took a lot of restrictions on the activities of small and medium businesses, which was introduced by the late President Islam Karimov. Cooperation within the EEU today has reached its limits due to the dominance of the state structures, corruption, underdeveloped economic structure of its member countries.

However, despite the generally (relatively) conflict-free integration of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Kyrgyz in Russia, migration from Central Asian countries creates the potential socio-political tensions (at least in some regions of Russia), which Putin seeks by all means to avoid.

Luring the Ukrainian citizens in Russia looks in his eyes, a win-win option – it is and Ukraine has, and helps to improve the demographic picture in Russia. Plus, among the Ukrainians potentially more highly skilled than among the inhabitants of Central Asia.

The Kremlin is unlikely to win Ukraine

The threat to distribute a simplified procedure of obtaining citizenship to all citizens of Ukraine – the form of even more ambitious political and economic blackmail the future President Zelensky than the distribution of passports to inhabitants of the occupied areas of the East, many of whom have managed to move to Russia.

But I’m not sure that this strategy, as often happens with the Kremlin, it will work. Three years ago the offer of citizenship would be far more effective. But since June of 2017, citizens of Ukraine have the right to visa-free entry to Schengen countries. Passport with a Trident in the international rankings is above passports with double-headed eagle. Many people use this opportunity for legal, semi-legal and, let’s be honest, illegal employment.

The Polish authorities claim to have attended for four years a million of Ukrainian refugees, some of whom settled in the country. Lithuania, one of the States most active in supporting Ukraine, it gives the Ukrainians a free six-month temporary work permits. Russia, with its falling fifth consecutive year real incomes of the population, instability, bureaucratic and police arbitrariness now looks not so attractive.

The Kremlin will hardly manage to win in Ukraine, suffering from the same social ills that Russia, a demographic war. If Putin will continue to persist in their games with the distribution of passports, the new batch of sanctions is quite likely. He understands it.

Konstantin Eggert, “the German wave”