Remittances to Ukraine labour migrants in 2018 could be at least $9.3 billion, said the Deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Dmitry Sologub.
“We expect that in the medium term, labour migration will decrease, but before that happens, it will grow another two or three years. In January, we expect the volume of private transfers will grow from $7.3 billion in 2017 to $7.8 billion in 2018. Now we are revising the Outlook of the remittances, taking into account new methods of assessment and will publish it along with the rest of macroeconomic forecasts in April. If counted on the basis of the new methodology data, in Ukraine in 2017 received private transfers in the amount of $9.3 billion, the amount this year will not be less, but not much more,” – said Dmitry Sologub reporters on Wednesday .
He noted that in the short term, the increase in the number of migrant workers has a positive impact on the balance of payments, but in the medium term is a significant risk factor.
“One of the greatest medium-term risks for Ukraine’s economy is migration, especially in conditions of significant growth of productivity of labour and other factors of production. That is, the increase in wages, which stimulated emigration, and the increase of social standards, pressure on the labour market, putting pressure on the profitability of enterprises, macroeconomic indicators, including inflation. We can say that in the short term is dominated by the positive side (from the growth of labor migration – if), because it will positively affect our balance of payments, but in the medium term is a significant risk factor,” said D. Sologub, adding that the upward trend in labour migration is the signal for improvement of working conditions in Ukraine.