© Alexander Demyanchuk/TASS
Anti-Russian sanctions were imposed after the escalation of the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine and a referendum on the status of Crimea. Initially, the US and EU imposed personal sanctions against a number of politicians, banning them from entering their territory and announcing the freezing of their financial resources (if any found) in the West Bank.
All sanctions of the West against Russia
Gradually the list of these individuals, and the types of sanctions and the number of countries to join them, expanded. Russia responded with their own food counter.
Three years later, we can say that the negative consequences of the restrictions was felt by all — and those who imposed them, and those against whom they are directed. “We have already often repeated like a mantra that the notorious sanctions on us is not really affected. Affect . And above all, the threat I see to limit the transfer of technologies, — stated Vladimir Putin in October last year at the forum “Russia calling”. — This, incidentally, is not only detrimental to the Russian economy and the world economy, because the Russian economy is an important sector of global economy.”
The experts noted the positive effect of the sanctions for a number of industries.
Initially, the EU sanctions list included 21 people, US — 7.
Economic and political effect of personal sanctions is negligible. Of course, some may fear to fall into such a situation, especially when using foreign assets with their future and their children’s future with Europe or the United States. But it’s personal stories across the country, the effect is not noticeable
Vice-President of the Center for political technologies
But the lists are constantly expanding and are now under sanctions of different countries are 78 Federal politicians, bureaucrats and the military, 29 politicians of the Crimea and Sevastopol, 16 businessmen and four public figure.
Negative consequences. “The economic and political effect of personal sanctions is negligible. Of course, some may fear to fall into such a situation, especially when using foreign assets with their future and their children’s future with Europe or the United States. But it’s personal stories across the country, the effect is negligible,” — said Vice-President of the Center for political technologies, Alexei Makarkin.
Positive effect. “Some officials and businessmen can turn your getting into these lists in the immune system, the extra weight of the hardware and capabilities. Times he suffered for the national interest, and to touch it is now impossible, on the contrary, we must help,” says Makarkin. In addition, sanctions contribute to the consolidation and the “nationalization” of the elite, which now connects more with the country itself, including financially.
Negative consequences. The main problem is the ban on loans to Russian banks and companies to Western banks. This dramatically reduced access of Russian businesses to “cheap” money. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, in 2013 only in the market of Eurobonds of Russian issuers raised $46.4 billion in 2015- only about $5 billion.
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In European and American banks were profitable perekreditovyvatsya without diverting interest payments on old loans fixed assets. As a result, the company could invest in development. The experts of the Institute of economic forecasting (IEF) RAS in 2015, estimated that “the Russian economy is forced to fill $160-200 billion drop-down of borrowed resources”. That is, the money you need to either look Asian banks that cannot be done quickly, or to take from its working capital. In the end, the money that could be spent on business development, often go to pay interest on old loans.
At the same time, the prohibition to lend to Russian companies affected European bankers. Experts as a senior researcher predicted, “the annual loss of European institutions of $8-10 billion” — it’s about not received interest not loans. A recent study by the Austrian Institute of economic research (WIFO) published in Der Standard, confirmed these figures even “overlap”: only for 2015 Europeans missed 17 billion euros of benefits.
Positive effect. The Russian business began to look for alternative ways to enter the Asian financial markets, which had often been done simply because of the habit of taking money in a “friendly” Western sources.
We have already often repeated like a mantra that the notorious sanctions on us is not really affected. Affect. And above all, the threat I see to limit the transfer of technology. This, incidentally, is not only detrimental to the Russian economy and the world economy, because the Russian economy is an important sector of global economy
The President of the Russian Federation
For example, “Gazprom” in 2015 is the first year raised $1.5 billion from a consortium of Chinese banks, and last year agreed with the Bank of China on loan for 2 billion euros. In early February of this year, the US company Rusal has expressed its intention to place on the Shanghai stock exchange bonds for 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion).
Russian companies have proven that they can find a strategic investors not only in the US and Europe. Illustrative example — sale of a 19.5% stake in Rosneft. Many analysts doubted that in the conditions when foreign investors are prohibited to invest in the shares of “Rosneft”, it will find an investor. But I bought an international consortium of Glencore and sovereign wealth Fund of Qatar
Another positive point: in response to attempts to restrict the calculations of the number of banks in the Visa and MasterCard in Russia was successfully launched the national payment system “World”.
Restrictions on the export of equipment and technology
The US, EU and several other countries have banned the supply to Russia of military goods and dual-use, any cooperation of their companies with the enterprises of the Russian defence industry, the equipment needed to develop oil and gas fields on the Arctic shelf and shale formations (drilling platforms, equipment for horizontal drilling, high-pressure pumps, etc.).
Negative consequences. Most significant for the Russian defense industry was the termination of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has said that Russia is unable to complete the construction of a number of ships for the needs of the Navy in connection with the suspension of supplies of Ukrainian gas-turbine units. It is well known that Ukrainian engines today are equipped with frigates of project 11356 (series for the black sea fleet) and 22350 (the newest frigate “Admiral Gorshkov”) for the Russian Navy. The construction of a number of ships had to be suspended. The same applies to some kind of military equipment.
But the defense industry, the dependence on imported technologies incomparably less than in the energy sector. It is on the energy sector sanctions will have the most lasting and painful impact, experts say, as a senior researcher. According to their calculations, the decline in the rate of development of new fields, in the very worst scenarios will lead to the fact that “by 2030, oil production could be reduced by 15%”.
Of the many fields on the Russian Arctic shelf as yet mastered only the “Prirazlomnaya”
© Maxim Vorkunkov/TASS
Meanwhile, the embargo on delivery of the equipment severely affected the Western economy. “If we look at oil drilling and cooperation in this area, there because of the sanctions remain unsold machines and equipment worth several billion euros,” – said in an interview to Postimees, the Deputy Secretary General of the European Commission Henrik Hololei.
In addition, if the production of oil in Russia does fall, it will push up the prices “at the current volume of consumption of oil and gas in the EU, this factor could result in additional losses of $3 billion per year,” – noted in the work of the experts as a senior researcher.
Thus, early lifting of the sanctions in the energy sector is beneficial to both parties.
Positive effect. Problems with imports, and, above all, the Ukrainian components have dramatically accelerated the implementation of the import substitution program in the military sphere. According to Dmitry Rogozin, in the framework of this program in Russia unfolds the production by 186 positions that were previously produced in Ukraine.
According to the defense Ministry of the Russian Federation, by the end of 2016, defence companies of Russia in 70-80% fulfilled the plan for the “Ukrainian” import substitution and 100% this figure will reach in 2018.
So, Rybinsk NPO “Saturn” will start delivery of gas turbine engines for warships in late 2017 — early 2018.
A missile of class “air — air”, which is designed Gosmkb “Vympel”, and some components were of Ukrainian origin. We have created a new missile, an export version is called RVV-MD, completely on domestic element base
The head of the Corporation “Tactical missiles”
Another example the engines for helicopters, which we supplied to the Zaporozhye plant “Motor Sich”. “Created these engines in KB Klimov in St. Petersburg, then the project documentation was transferred to Zaporozhye, and there was established the serial production. Now near St. Petersburg built serial factory for the production of such engines and although it can’t completely replace the “Motor-Sich”, the needs of the engines for our military helicopters to compensate for still manage,” says military commentator Viktor Litovkin TASS
Envisages the release of around 300-320 engines for helicopters Mi-28, Ka-52, Mi-35, Mi-17 and Ka-32. 250 of them are the defense Ministry, the rest – foreign sekscam.
Problems with import substitution had been resolved and the Corporation “Tactical missiles” (tactical missiles Corporation), which is the main producer of Russian aircraft missiles.
“For example, a missile of class “air — air”, which is designed Gosmkb “Vympel”, and some components were of Ukrainian origin. We have created a new missile, an export version is called RVV-MD, completely on domestic element base,” – said the head of tactical missiles Corporation Boris Obnosov.
He noted that had the same problem with anti-ship missile X-35E. Today, a new missile KH-35UE with increased range, equipped with a Russian engine NPO “Saturn”.
Greenhouse for growing tomatoes on the plant “Lobaccaro”
© Alexander Ryumin/TASS
Food counter-sanctions from Russia
The essence of the sanctions. In 2014, Russia imposed an embargo on the country to “separate types of agricultural products, raw materials and food, country of origin is the country which adopted the decision on introduction of economic sanctions against Russia.” The list includes meat and dairy products, vegetables, fruits, nuts etc..
Negative consequences. At first counter-sanctions have contributed to inflation growth in food products. As a result, it became one of the factors that for the first time in many years in 2014, the country had recorded double-digit inflation was 11.4%, and in 2015 it amounted to 12.9%.
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Slightly sharper was the problem of product quality. So, in 2015, the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert reported that the proportion of counterfeit dairy products (with vegetable fat) in Russia was 11%, and among certain types of products – up to 50%.
However, the main negative effect of the Russian sanctions had for European farmers. In 2015 the export of food products from EU countries to Russia decreased by 29%, European manufacturers have a shortfall of 2.2 billion euros profit in jeopardy 130 thousand jobs.
Positive effect. “A positive effect (from introduction of countersanctions. – Approx TASS) – TASS says Andrey Danilenko, head of the Committee for agricultural policy of the Association “Business Russia”. – There are details and nuances, but in General the substitution worked. We are today one of the largest exporters of grain, we largely provide themselves with meat and milk.”
There are details and nuances, but in General the substitution worked. We are today one of the largest exporters of grain, we pretty much provide itself with meat and milk
Head of the Committee for agricultural policy of the Association “Business Russia”
According to the National meat Association (NMA), the self-sufficiency of Russian poultry meat currently accounts for almost 100% pork and 90% beef and 65%. In the Cabinet, in turn, believe that milk Russia provides itself to 75%. Danilenko notes that “the cost of production of milk more competitive than the EU, USA and South America,” but the industry is very much hampered by the high cost of loans.
To date, minimized the impact of food sanctions and inflation. By the end of 2016, it amounted to only 5.4%.
Andrei Vesselov, Roman Azanov